There are a number of rivalry games in Round 17 with Port Adelaide and Adelaide meeting in The Showdown. Adelaide is cruising at the moment after knocking off Geelong last week and are right on the edge of the top eight. Saturday sees North Melbourne and Essendon continue their rivalry, but it will be the Kangaroos who will win this one – Centrebet agrees starting the Roos at $1.40.

Of the remaining games, top of the table Collingwood are raging favourites against Richmond, same with Geelong who are unbackable against the Lions at Skilled Stadium. West Coast hosts Carlton Saturday night in a match where the bookies can barely separate the two teams, but the Eagles look a big chance to win. The Bulldogs are another short priced team as they take on Fremantle in Melbourne, while Melbourne will start as outsiders against Sydney on Sunday.

AFL Round 17 Fixtures						Venue	Date
$1.68	St Kilda			Hawthorn	$2.20	ETI	Fri, 7:40pm
$1.10	Collingwood			Richmond	$7.10	MCG	Sat, 2:10pm
$1.05	Geelong			Brisbane	$10.25	SS	Sat, 2:10pm
$1.40	North Melbourne			Essendon	$2.98	ETI	Sat, 7:10pm
$1.94	West Coast			Carlton	$1.87	SUB	Sat, 7:40pm
$1.30	Western Bulldogs			Fremantle	$3.55	ETI	Sun, 1:10pm
$2.42	Melbourne			Sydney	$1.57	MCG	Sun, 2:10pm
$3.90	Port Adelaide			Adelaide	$1.26	AAMI	Sun, 4:40pm

Best Bet of the Round

Tough round to find value in with so many shorties, but I think the Hawks are way over the odds against St Kilda. It should be a close encounter, so the Hawks under 39.5 points at $2.75 is a good chance. North Melbourne appears over the odds against the struggling Bombers and I fancy them to win that clash.

I recommend taking a double of Hawthorn under 39.5 into North Melbourne at $3.85 this week. Why not register with Centrebet and make this bet today? You’ll get yourself a $100 Free Bet if you register via our links, so a good chance to turn that $100 into $385!

Get a $100 Free Bet on this at Centrebet

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Richmond is faced with the mammoth task of taking on Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday afternoon, while the Tigers have been in reasonable form themselves they will struggle to mount a charge against the top of the table Pies.

Collingwood have soared onto the top of the AFL ladder crushing last year’s grand finalist by 48 points at the MCG. Dane Swan continued his stellar season with 36 touches while Leigh Brown filled the void left by Travis Cloke kicking three goals. In recent times the Pies hold the upper hand winning three of their last five games including their last two encounters by a combined 137 points. To further bolster their defence skipper Nick Maxwell looks set to return from a calf injury and could hold the key against Tigers forward Jack Reiwoldt.

Richmond stumbled to their first loss in over a month against North Melbourne at the MCG, despite winning their previous four games the Tigers looked flat and struggled to adapt to the winter conditions. Jack Reiwoldt was well held despite kicking three goals. Unfortunately the Tigers looks set to be without Trent Cotchin through suspension. If Richmond can show the same passion Melbourne have against Collingwood this season they will give themselves some hope.

Conclusion

Despite Kevin Sheedy’s publicly stating Collingwood lack class they should have plenty in reserve to deal with the Tigers. Richmond have been gallant this year but they were exposed last week by a harder North Melbourne and may be beginning to tire with the season quickly drawing to an end.

Geelong take on Brisbane at Skilled Stadium on Saturday afternoon, the Cats look somewhat vulnerable in recent weeks but a clash against the out of sorts Lions maybe just what they need to spark up their season.

Geelong suffered their fourth loss of the season on the road against Adelaide at AAMI Stadium and has slipped to second on the ladder. The Cats failed to fire against an impressive Adelaide but we are used to the Cats having a quiet spell mid season before hitting peak form come finals. They will be bolstered by the return of Steve Johnson and Tom Hawkins from injury. In recent times the Cats have dominated winning seven of their last eight encounters and will be desperate to bounce back after last week’s below par performance.

Brisbane was hammered in Launceston last week by the Hawks to the tune of 75 points. The only positive for the Lions was the return of Jonathon Brown who kicked three goals from limited opportunities which included a dismal 25 inside fifty entries for the entire game. The Lions have been disappointing against the Cats having not won at Skilled Stadium since 2003 with coach Michael Voss declaring he could drop up to nine players who put in subpar performances.

Conclusion

Could not tip against the Cats at Skilled Stadium, they have not lost there in over three years and could belt the Lions if they put in a performance like last week against the Hawks. For the first time this season the Cats could almost be at full strength, a daunting site for even the best of sides.

North Melbourne take on Essendon on Sunday afternoon with renewed hope of extending their season beyond round 22 while the Bombers need to show some soul and release the pressure on under sieged coach Matthew Knights.

North Melbourne ended the Tigers four game winning streak with an impressive 50 point win in cold and wet conditions at the MCG. The win did come at a coast with Lindsay Thomas and Robbie Tarrant both set to miss through injury. In recent times the Roos have dominated the Bombers winning seven of their last eight games with Brent Harvey averaging 30 disposals and a goal against the Bombers.

Essendon are in real danger of winning the wooden spoon after another disappointing loss to West Coast at Etihad Stadium, the loss is the Bombers sixth in a row and places significant pressure on Coach Matthew Knights. Club Legend Matthew Lloyd has also sunk the boot in declaring his former club needs a massive review at season’s end. The Bombers really need a lift from skipper Jobe Watson who has been disappointing in recent weeks but has been good against the Kangaroos in the past averaging 28 disposals in their last five encounters.

Conclusion

With North Melbourne pressing for finals and the Bombers seemingly lost we have to back North Melbourne to win this game. They have a dominant record over the Bombers and have flown under the radar winning three of their last five games.

The Rejuvenated Tigers take on North Melbourne at the MCG in a tough game for tippers, the Tigers have won four on the trot while North have won three of their last five and have one last crack at making finals.

Richmond claimed arguably its biggest scalp on the weekend downing the top four Dockers by 19 points at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night; again it was Jack Reiwoldt who dominated kicking five goals while a rejuvenated Daniel Connors was also impressive with 35 touches and a goal. In recent times the honours between the two clubs have been shared with both recording two wins in their last five encounters which also included a draw last season. With Chris Newman leading a solid defence the Tigers should be able to hold off the undermanned North forward line.

North Melbourne sit 9th on the ladder and need to win this game to give themselves any chance at a finals campaign, last week they were unable to fire against Sydney with forward Drew Petire unable to run out the game with a reoccurring foot problem. The Kangaroos are lacking forward options with too much reliance being placed on small forward Lindsay Thomas. In their last five games Corey Jones has been the Kangaroos most effective player kicking 11 goals, with good form in the VFL you would expect him to return.

Conclusion

The Tigers have won four games on the trot and although they cannot make the finals they are going to help shape it. The Kangaroos have a solid defence and promising midfield but they reliance on small forwards to kick goals is just not working consistently.

Carlton takes on Sydney at Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a must win game for both sides. Carlton sit seventh one spot behind the Swans with a win for either side almost certainly cementing September action.

Carlton Captain Chris Judd has declared his side doesn’t deserve to finish in the top four after they were smashed by 68 points against the Western Bulldogs. Judd has labelled his side as inconsistent and believes supporters have the right to expect more. In recent times the Blues record against the Swans is terrible winning just one of their last thirteen encounters, Coach Brett Ratten has declared the Blues don’t have the firepower to match the top teams, Jarrod Waite is likely to replace the misfiring Setanta O’Hailpin while Brad Fisher could be in line for a senior recall after impressing in the VFL.

Sydney had dropped off the pace having lost two in a row prior to last week however managed to turn that around to run out 30 point winners against North Melbourne. Adam Goodes return to form will be a welcome sight for Paul Roos, he had 33 touches and kicked 3 goals to be best afield. Their record against the Blues is dominant in recent times however they did lose by ten goals to the Blues in round 16 last season at Etihad Stadium.

Conclusion

With both sides finals aspirations on the line you would expect a fierce encounter, despite having the home ground advantage the Blues are lacking a forward line capable of kicking a winning score, in their win last season it was Brendan Fevola kicking five goals, the Blues are seemingly struggling to replace his presence while the Swans are hitting form at the business end of the season.

To wrap up round fifteen Carlton hosts the Western Bulldogs in a twilight game at Etihad Stadium on Sunday night. Both sides sit on eight wins and a loss for either side will just about rule out a top four chance.

Carlton hammered the undermanned Lions last week to the tune of 55 points with small forward Eddie Betts wreaking havoc with five goals while Chris Judd was also prominent with 29 disposals. Surprisingly the Blues have dominated against the Western Bulldogs winning their last three games by an average margin of 27 points. In their last encounter Kade Simpson and Ryan Houlihan were best afield with 29 disposals and 2 goals each. Brad Fisher could be included after kicking four goals in the reserves last week.

Western Bulldogs were heavily backed for this years Premiership after their NAB Cup triumph but a loss to the Blues will most certainly rule them out of top four contention. Last week they wasted chances against the Hawks to go down by 4 points in what many considered the game of the season. Will Minson, Bad Johnson will be in some doubt to play after picking up injuries against the Hawks while Tom Williams could return from a hamstring injury.

Sportsbet Match Head to Head Odds
Carlton	Line	Western Bulldogs
$2.58	13.5	$1.51

Conclusion

Despite their recent poor record against the Blues the Bulldogs will be desperate to bounce back after last week’s loss, the Blues small forward line will suit the Bulldogs and the form of Brian Lake will strangle the Blues chances of kicking a winning score.

The Blues will keep it tight, but the Bulldogs should have too much power in the end. I think it’s safe to say the margin will be under 39.5 points and you can get juicy odds of $2.31 on this to happen with Sportsbet.

• Back BULLDOGS UNDER 39.5 POINTS at $2.31 with Sportsbet

Current Ladder Positions

		Team	W	D	L	F	A	Pct %	Pts	Streak
5.		Western Bulldogs	8	0	6	1366	1075	127.07	32	L1
6.		Carlton	8	0	6	1380	1208	114.24	32	W1

Recent Results

• Apr 2009 – Western Bulldogs (90) v Carlton (133)
• Jul 2008 – Western Bulldogs (98) v Carlton (126)
• Jun 2007 – Carlton (138) v Western Bulldogs (128)
• Jul 2006 – Carlton (80) v Western Bulldogs (110)
• Jun 2005 – Western Bulldogs (116) v Carlton (70)
• May 2004 – Carlton (79) v Western Bulldogs (104)
• May 2003 – Carlton (107) v Western Bulldogs (100)

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The Bombers have been under plenty of heat in recent weeks with coach Matthew Knights under increasing pressure to get his underperforming Bombers back on track, Melbourne have been gallant this season and are sure to take it up to the Bombers on Sunday afternoon.

Melbourne took on the Saints last week and despite going down by 35 points will be encouraged they were challenging last year’s Grand Finalist up until three quarter time. Brad Green, Jack Trengrove and Mark Jamar were the best for the Demons however they will be without Jack Grimes who suffered a hamstring injury. The Demons have won just two of their last five encounters but have struggled in recent times losing their last three.

Essendon’s finals aspirations hang on this game after annihilation at the hands of Adelaide last week. Essendon Coach Matthew Knights has become increasingly frustrated with his team’s poor performances with speculation he has lost trust with his players, a number of Bombers have failed to step up this season, previously against the Demons Scott Lucas, Matthew Lloyd and Adam McPhee have been the Bombers best but they are now gone and the likes of Michael Hurley and Scott Gumbledon need to stand up.

Sportsbet Match Head to Head Odds
Melbourne	Line	Essendon
$1.88	1.5	$1.93

Conclusion

Looking at the two sides Melbourne probably go in with better form but Essendon have their season on the line and need to recover after last week’s horror performance, the Demons record against the Bombers and their poor injuries could start to take a toll on Melbourne.

Essendon had a bad week last week but I expect them to bounce back this weekend. They still have a veeeeeery faint hope of making the finals and I don’t believe they will slip up. Take them to win at Sportsbet at the juicy odds of $1.93 today.

• Back ESSENDON WIN at $1.93 with Sportsbet

Current Ladder Positions

		Team	W	D	L	F	A	Pct %	Pts	Streak
12.		Essendon	5	0	9	1214	1441	84.25	20	L4
14.		Melbourne	4	1	9	1081	1249	86.55	18	L2

Recent Results

• Jun 2009 – Essendon (131) v Melbourne (83)
• Aug 2008 – Essendon (124) v Melbourne (108)
• Jun 2007 – Essendon (125) v Melbourne (123)
• Jun 2006 – Essendon (75) v Melbourne (111)
• Aug 2005 – Essendon (85) v Melbourne (95)
• Mar 2005 – Melbourne (103) v Essendon (57)
• Jun 2004 – Essendon (69) v Melbourne (95)

Free Bets for the Match

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We’re also going to be running some good promos soon so be sure to register and get involved, who knows, you might even have some good fun. We’re a fast growing community and we’d love to hear some of your views or opinions, or you can let your hair down in our general chat section.

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One of the most important clashes of the round has Sydney hosting North Melbourne at the SCG. The Swans are just holding down eighth position on the ladder while the Kangaroos are just percentage behind in ninth position.

Sydney fell away badly last week against the Tigers, after leading by 28 points at three quarter time they were overrun by an inexperienced Tigers outfit with Swans defender Tadhg Kennelly declaring the Swans played in fear of making an error. Unfortunately the Swans will again be without forward Daniel Bradshaw, Craig Bolton, Henry Playfair and Gary Rohan through injury. The Swans have won their last four games against the Kangaroos including a 40 point win in their round four encounter at Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne made the trip to Skilled Stadium with Coach Brad Scott declaring the Cattery would hold no fears for his young side, despite putting in an above par performance that included outscoring the Cats by two goals to four in the last quarter North still went down by 35 points. Importantly for the Kangaroos their most influential player against the Swans in recent times Drew Petrie is a chance to return and would add some height in an otherwise small forward line.

Sportsbet Match Head to Head Odds
Sydney	Line	Kangaroos
$1.42	17.5	$2.89

Conclusion

Sydney’s record at the SCG speaks volumes against the Kangaroos, they have not won their since 2004 and with Jack Ziebell missing their young side will struggle against a Swan’s outfit desperate to bounce back after last week’s shock loss.

I think Sydney will continue this dominance and im tipping them to win by about the 5 goal mark, which means they should be able to cover the -17.5 point line comfortably enough. So take that at $1.91 at Sportsbet today.

• Back SYDNEY -17.5 at $1.91 with Sportsbet

Current Ladder Positions

		Team	W	D	L	F	A	Pct %	Pts	Streak
8.		Sydney	7	0	7	1239	1163	106.53	28	L2
9.		North Melbourne	7	0	7	1172	1424	82.30	28	L1

Recent Results

• Apr 2010 – North Melbourne (60) v Sydney (100)
• Jul 2009 – Sydney (100) v North Melbourne (85)
• Apr 2008 – North Melbourne (64) v Sydney (64)
• Sep 2008 – Sydney (110) v North Melbourne (75)
• May 2007 – North Melbourne (111) v Sydney (95)
• Jun 2006 – North Melbourne (98) v Sydney (105)
• Aug 2005 – Sydney (101) v North Melbourne (64)

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We’re also going to be running some good promos soon so be sure to register and get involved, who knows, you might even have some good fun. We’re a fast growing community and we’d love to hear some of your views or opinions, or you can let your hair down in our general chat section.
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The yellow and black army are on the march and although no chance of September action they can have a significant hand is shaping it, in their way will be the fourth place Fremantle side who continue to impress after finishing fourteenth last season.

Richmond have belief under coach Damien Hardwick, despite trailing by 33 points late in the third quarter the Tigers stormed home to record a famous four point victory. The victory was somewhat marred with Ben Cousins admitted to hospital later that night with a reaction to sleeping tablets. The Tigers have won four games this season all against interstate sides, beating Fremantle would be their biggest scalp yet. The Tigers have won their last two encounters against Fremantle at the MCG.

Fremantle recorded yet another win at Subiaco with a 57 point thumping of Port Adelaide. The victory was sour though with the loss of Michael Barlow to an horrific broken leg. In his debut season Barlow has averaged 33 disposals and kicked 15 goals, his loss will leave a gaping hole in the Fremantle midfield. In their round five encounter Barlow was best afield in the Dockers 42 point win with skipper Matthew Pavlich kicking four goals.

Sportsbet Match Head to Head Odds
Richmond	Line	Fremantle
$2.64	14.5	$1.49

Conclusion

The loss of Barlow will hit the Dockers hard, Richmond look full of confidence and with Jack Reiwoldt leading the Coleman Medal race and Chris Tarrant doubtful through injury the Tigers look likely to record their fifth victory for the season.

Having said that, the Dockers have been very good this season and have proven that they should never be underestimated. I think the Tigers will win, but I think it will be safe playing them on the points line and you can get a headstart of +14.5 points with Sportsbet. I recommend taking this.

• Back RICHMOND +14.5 POINTS at $1.91 with Sportsbet

Current Ladder Positions

		Team	W	D	L	F	A	Pct %	Pts	Streak
4.		Fremantle	10	0	4	1481	1212	122.19	40	W2
15.		Richmond	4	0	10	1063	1455	73.06	16	W3

Recent Results

• Apr 2010 – Fremantle (112) v Richmond (73)
• May 2009 – Fremantle (112) v Richmond (115)
• Aug 2008 – Richmond (105) v Fremantle (98)
• Apr 2008 – Fremantle (73) v Richmond (137)
• Jun 2007 – Fremantle (123) v Richmond (102)
• Jun 2006 – Fremantle (100) v Richmond (89)
• Apr 2005 – Richmond (100) v Fremantle (52)

Free Bets for the Match

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Where to Discuss this Weekends Action?

Be sure to check out our new Betting Forum at PunterZone.com.au today. We’re only new, but we’ve already got some fabulous tipsters (especially for the AFL) who are tipping some winners at some very nice prices on sports and racing.

We’re also going to be running some good promos soon so be sure to register and get involved, who knows, you might even have some good fun. We’re a fast growing community and we’d love to hear some of your views or opinions, or you can let your hair down in our general chat section.
Visit our official Betting Forum today at this link!